Sometimes, simply doing nothing can be an asset, knowing this is the first step to successfully implementing this concept.
The duality of doing nothing is set between the premises "stop winning" and "stop losing".
It is never enough to remember one of the best advices of the betting academy community and from Paulo himself that has surely left a mark on my journey through the betting world: "knowing how to do nothing".
I have myself felt (for better or worse) that, truly, "knowing how to do nothing" and actually staying put can be extremely productive.
A few weeks ago a daily newspaper published an article relating to this theme: doing nothing can be very lucrative. Our betting example is not exactly the same as that newspaper's but, the simple fact of considering taking no action is already valuable, it is the first step towards being able to mobilize this concept when needed.
The Art of Doing Nothing
According to the former article and others I've read on the internet, doing nothing can be reinvigorating, reduce stress and boost our concentration and productivity.
All of these situations are relevant for "normal" people but they are even more crucial for traders.
When we are sitting in front of the screen to work it is surely helpful to be in a physically and mentally sound condition. Keeping us alert, concentrated and focused, getting those expert analysis on track leading us to our most wanted outcome, THE GREEN!
But why is doing nothing so important?
More than anything that a beginner might hope to write here, all has been said already by Paulo Rebelo at the academy course and on various other sessions including our "great tutors" on the academy Teamspeak live followings.
What I can bring to the table are all the mistakes I committed and were duly noted by the experts of the former paragraph as 0 value entries, running after losses, the urge to get a GREEN at any cost…
Here comes into play the importance of doing nothing! Stay calm, analyse the situation and assert whether going in or not is valuable.
My top mistakes were two of the most common ones:
- Getting some small initial greens and EUREKA(!!) – “I got this in the bag!!!” Easy outcome, everything is GREEN!!! - MISTAKE!! – The RED's quickly arrived in situations easily avoided by staying put! DOING NOTHING!
- Following a RED, let's get it back, anything will do to get back my losses. “This may go right! It has to go right”, no analysis, no rationality so, another RED! Once again, the best path was, DOING NOTHING!
What we may not win Vs. What we don't lose?
This concept of doing nothing is stuck in the dichotomy of stop winning and stop losing. Our thoughts on the matter usually go like this: “I won't bet and I'll stop winning!” or “I' stop betting to stop losing!”
Through all the mistakes I made, videos I watched and the talks I've heard on the academy live followings with Foot, José and Filipe, I learned that a good analysis and a good reading on what's happening on a given match sets the difference between a doubt "doing nothing to not lose” or a certainty “embrace a calculated risk that will make us profit on the long run”.
Even when a bet turns out RED, if it was a value bet we must think: “it was a risk, a risk with a high probability to go right but simply didn't!”
With practice we can change a "don't do anything and you won't lose" thought, into a "it was a risk with high chance of success! If every factor was the same I would do it again. In 10 identical situation 8 or 9 will turn out right!" though based on the trust we place on our bets.
On the other end of these ideas "If I do nothing I'll stop winning”, the truth is though that we might end up losing more if we get ourselves into 0 value situations.
This will be an eternal dilemma, so we must anchor ourselves on our good betting judgement in order to be able to know that, when a bet does not fall, it was not luck, it was simply a big probability event that simply didn't happen!
To close this article I'll present a real life example: Champions League, quarter finals, Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid.
On the first leg, big RED for almost everyone on the goal markets.
- Pre-live: derby, always heavily disputed matches, lots of goals. 2 goals being scored is the minimum.
- Live: Real on top, loads of goal opportunities. Everyone going hard on the overs (0,5/ 1,5). Very dynamic match even with Atletico pushed back. Final moments of the game, Atletico starts pushing back, corners, set pieces, everything they enjoy. Real taking advantage of the open spaces. And all of us pressing hard on the over 0,5.
- Conclusion: You got it, 0 goals, RED's all around!
Should we have done nothing? Simply watch such a dynamic game… Never! The question then, should not be “If I hadn't bet I wouldn't had lost anything” but “It had value and had everything to go right”!
On the second leg history almost repeated itself but the teams were even more cynical. A goal could be deadly and both coaches favoured defensive consistency. A lower goal probability was obvious with only a sending off unlocking the match!
Conclusion
On my short betting road I went through mistake ridden phases, I reflected on them though and I'm surely progressing with my trading abilities.
One of my most improved aspects are my pre-live and live analysis which determine if I'm going in on a bet or simply watching.
We must know that, despite most of the times "doing nothing" will not be productive strategy, it is very important to: never go into a market without the conviction that, even if you lose the money, it was a valuable bet!
If we do not have this conviction, in that case, DOING NOTHING CAN INDEED BE PROFITABLE!!
